Geopolitics
How OPEC+ Actually Sets Production Quotas - and Why Compliance Is Never 100%
OPEC+ output policy runs on reference baselines, a monitoring committee, and a panel of outside data firms, and the gap
By Christy Davis · 6 min
OPEC+ Spare Capacity: The Market's Invisible Shock Absorber
The few million barrels Saudi Arabia and the UAE can bring online in weeks are the real reason a Gulf tanker scare no lo
By Christy Davis · 6 min
The Anatomy of an Oil Sanction: How Barrels Get Blacklisted and Still Move
Price caps, dark fleets, and mid-ocean ship-to-ship transfers explain why sanctioned crude almost never vanishes from th
By John Winkler · 6 min
The Strait of Hormuz Premium: Pricing the Unthinkable
Roughly a fifth of the world's oil crosses a 21-mile-wide channel Iran can menace but has never fully closed, and the ga
By John Winkler · 6 min
The Strait of Hormuz: Anatomy of the World's Most Important Oil Chokepoint
About a fifth of the world's oil squeezes through a 21-mile gap between Iran and Oman every day, and the pipelines built
By John Winkler · 6 min
How Oil Sanctions Actually Work: Price Caps, Shadow Fleets, and Enforcement Gaps
The West built its oil sanctions to squeeze revenue without choking supply, and the seams in that design are exactly why
By John Winkler · 6 min
The Iran Sanctions Playbook: How Oil Keeps Moving Under Maximum Pressure
American sanctions have never actually stopped Iranian barrels; they have simply pushed them onto an aging shadow fleet,
By John Winkler · 6 min
UAE Quits OPEC After 59 Years, Redrawing the Cartel's Capacity Map
Abu Dhabi's departure, effective May 1, strips OPEC of a top-three producer and much of the spare capacity that lets the
By Christy Davis · 5 min
US Captures Maduro in Caracas Raid, Upending Venezuela's Oil Future
American special operators seized Nicolas Maduro and his wife on January 3, and now the world's largest crude reserves s
By John Winkler · 5 min
Trump Vows US Oil Majors Will Rebuild Venezuela's Industry After Maduro's Ouster
Hours after Nicolas Maduro was flown to New York in US custody, the president said American oil companies would take ove
By Christy Davis · 5 min
OPEC+ Holds 2026 Output Steady and Approves a Capacity-Assessment Mechanism for Future Quotas
Ministers froze group-wide production for all of 2026 and signed off on independent audits of each member's maximum sust
By Christy Davis · 5 min
Trump Declares Venezuelan Airspace Closed, Triggering De Facto Air Blockade
A single Truth Social post ordering Venezuela's skies shut cleared the country's airspace of international traffic withi
By John Winkler · 5 min
USS Gerald R. Ford Redirected From Mediterranean Toward Venezuela
Hegseth has ordered the Navy's largest carrier out of the Mediterranean and into the Caribbean, the biggest American mil
By John Winkler · 4 min
Trump Confirms CIA Covert Operations Inside Venezuela as Warship Armada Masses Offshore
The president said out loud what spies almost never admit, and a fleet in the southern Caribbean turned his words into a
By John Winkler · 5 min
Fitch Upgrades Pemex Two Notches to BB+ After Government-Backed Debt Tender
The ratings agency now puts the state oil company just one notch below Mexico itself, crediting Sheinbaum's cash over an
By Christy Davis · 5 min
Eight IOCs, Baghdad and Erbil Strike Deal to Restart Kurdish Crude Exports
Eight foreign operators agreed to hand their crude to Iraq's state marketer SOMO at a fixed $16 a barrel, unlocking the
By Christy Davis · 5 min
Aramco Prints $3 Billion Two-Tranche Sukuk in London as Debt-Market Return Continues
The Saudi oil giant priced $1.5 billion at each of two maturities on September 10, listing the Islamic notes in London t
By Christy Davis · 5 min
Sheinbaum's 2026 Budget Earmarks $14.1 Billion to Cover Pemex Debt Amortizations
Mexico's proposed 2026 spending plan sets aside 263.5 billion pesos to retire Pemex debt, but only if the company matche
By Christy Davis · 5 min
Moody's Upgrades Pemex to B1 on Strengthened Sovereign Commitment
The rating agency lifted Pemex two notches on the strength of Mexico's promise to backstop the oil giant through 2027, e
By Christy Davis · 5 min
Pemex Launches Government-Financed $9.9 Billion Bond Tender to Retire Front-End Maturities
Mexico's state oil company is buying back up to $9.9 billion of bonds due through 2029 with cash the federal government
By Christy Davis · 6 min
US Military Strikes First Alleged Venezuelan Drug Boat, Killing 11
Trump says a US strike destroyed a speedboat carrying drugs for the Tren de Aragua gang, killing all 11 aboard and openi
By John Winkler · 6 min
Guyana's Ali Wins Re-Election as Essequibo Dispute With Caracas Boils Over
Irfaan Ali and the PPP/C took a second term on the strength of an ExxonMobil oil boom, hours after gunfire from the Vene
By John Winkler · 5 min
US Warships Steam Toward Venezuela as Caribbean Buildup Rattles Oil Trade
An amphibious ready group led by the USS Iwo Jima and roughly 4,500 personnel is moving into the southern Caribbean, and
By John Winkler · 5 min
US Doubles Bounty on Maduro to $50 Million as Caracas Pressure Mounts
Attorney General Pam Bondi announced a record $50 million reward for information leading to the Venezuelan president's a
By John Winkler · 5 min
Banobras Launches MX$250 Billion Fund to Clear Pemex's Supplier and Contractor Backlog
Mexico's development bank is stepping in front of Pemex's payment queue, paying contractors directly and financing 2025
By Christy Davis · 5 min
Sheinbaum Unveils 10-Year Pemex Rescue Plan Targeting 1.8 Million b/d and Fiscal Independence by 2027
Mexico's government laid out a decade-long strategy to cut Pemex debt, hold crude output at 1.8 million barrels a day, a
By Christy Davis · 6 min
Mexico Prices Record $12 Billion 'P-Cap' Deal via Eagle Funding to Backstop Pemex Debt
The first sovereign pre-capitalized securities offering pulls in $23.4 billion of orders and hands Pemex a Treasury-back
By Christy Davis · 5 min
Pemex Posts First Quarterly Profit in Over a Year as Government Cash Flows In
A stronger peso lifted Pemex to a 59.5-billion-peso profit on the same day Mexico closed a $12 billion debt deal built t
By Christy Davis · 5 min
Venezuela and US Complete Prisoner Swap That Preceded Chevron's License
Ten Americans came home, roughly 250 Venezuelans left a Salvadoran mega-prison, and within a week Washington quietly cle
By John Winkler · 5 min
US Condemns Attacks on HKN's Sarsang Field as KRG Cries Economic Terrorism
Washington and London denounced a week of drone strikes on Kurdistan's oil fields after American operator HKN Energy shu
By John Winkler · 5 min
Pro-Iran Drone Barrage Shutters Kurdistan Oil Fields, Slashing Output by 150,000 b/d
Three days of drone strikes on fields run by HKN Energy and DNO knocked roughly 150,000 barrels a day off Kurdish crude
By John Winkler · 5 min
Venezuela Stages Vote for Guyana's Essequibo, Defying ICJ Order
Caracas elected a governor and eight lawmakers for a territory it does not control, three weeks after the World Court to
By John Winkler · 5 min