Russia Extends Gasoline Export Ban Into 2026 as Drone Strikes Squeeze Fuel Supply

Russia is keeping its gasoline off the world market for the rest of the year. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Thursday that Moscow will extend its ban on gasoline exports through December 31 and add a new restriction blocking diesel exports by companies that do not produce fuel themselves. The move formalizes what traders had already been pricing in for weeks: with Ukrainian drones knocking out refinery capacity almost daily, the Kremlin would rather ration barrels at home than sell them abroad.

"In the near future, we will extend the ban on gasoline exports until the end of the year, and a ban on diesel fuel exports by non-producers will also be introduced until the end of the year," Novak said. The decrees are expected to be signed within days. The gasoline measure applies to every exporter, including producers, while the diesel rule targets the middlemen - trading houses that buy fuel inside Russia and ship it overseas. Actual refiners can still export diesel.

What the ban actually covers

This is not Russia's first gasoline export freeze, but it is a wider one. The government first imposed a temporary ban in March 2025, then extended it through September 30 for producers and October 31 for non-producing traders. Thursday's announcement pushes the wall out to the end of the year and hardens it. Gasoline is off the table for all sellers. Diesel, marine fuel and other gas oils get a narrower treatment: resellers are locked out, producers are not.

The distinction matters for the market math. Russia is one of the largest diesel exporters on earth, and a blanket diesel ban would ripple straight into European and global middle-distillate prices. By carving out producers, Moscow is trying to protect its own retail supply without fully choking off the export revenue that keeps the war economy running. It is a compromise, and a telling one.

Drones are the reason

The export ban is a symptom. The disease is a sustained Ukrainian campaign against Russian refineries. Since the summer, drone strikes have hit at least ten refineries, forcing several major plants to halt crude intake or run at reduced rates. On the worst days, the attacks have cut Russia's refining throughput by roughly a fifth. The Ryazan refinery, one of the country's biggest, was struck in late August. Others have taken repeated hits, which is the real problem - a plant can absorb one strike, but repeated waves stop crews from finishing repairs before the next drone arrives.

When you take a fifth of your refining capacity offline intermittently, the crude keeps flowing out of the ground but fewer finished barrels come out the other end. That is why a country swimming in oil can still run short of gasoline at the pump. Exports are the release valve Moscow controls, so exports get shut first.

Shortages are already showing up

The pressure is visible on the ground. In Crimea, roughly half of filling stations ran dry, and the peninsula's Russian-installed leader Sergei Aksyonov went on record asking people to wait it out. "I'm asking Crimean residents and visitors to the peninsula to remain patient. This is an unavoidable situation," he said, promising that higher-octane AI-95 would return within two days and AI-92 within about two weeks. Shortages of specific grades have also spread into the Volga region and other areas, with some popular octane grades simply unavailable at certain stations.

So far there has been no widespread panic buying, which is the line the government most wants to hold. But the wholesale market is flashing red. The benchmark AI-92 grade hit a record wholesale price of 73,848 rubles per ton on Thursday, about $888 at current rates. Records at the wholesale level do not stay off the retail sign forever, and the export ban is partly an attempt to keep that gap from blowing out.

The trade-off Moscow is making

Every barrel Russia keeps at home is a barrel it does not sell for hard currency. Fuel exports are a meaningful revenue stream, and diesel in particular is a big earner. Choosing domestic supply over export income is not free, and the fact that the Kremlin is doing it - again, and for longer - tells you how worried it is about shortages becoming political.

There is also a global read here. Pulling Russian gasoline and reseller diesel off the international market tightens supply everywhere, even if Russian producers keep exporting their own diesel. Traders will watch the diesel carve-out closely, because if the strikes keep landing and domestic diesel gets tight, the pressure to widen the ban to producers grows. That is the scenario that would move prices well beyond Russia's borders.

What to watch next

Three things will tell us where this goes. First, the drones: if Ukraine keeps hitting refineries faster than Russia can repair them, the throughput deficit deepens and the ban stays or expands. Second, the diesel producer exemption: any signal that Moscow is considering a fuller diesel ban would be a warning for global middle-distillate markets. Third, retail prices and station availability inside Russia - because the whole point of the export freeze is to keep fuel on the forecourt, and if it fails there, the government will reach for harder tools like rationing.

For now, Russia has made its choice plain. The gasoline stays home through the new year, the reseller diesel trade is frozen, and the bet is that domestic supply can be stabilized before the shortages turn into something the Kremlin cannot manage quietly. The drones will have a vote on whether that bet pays off.